作者：李奋飞
作者介绍：中国人民大学法学院副教授，刑事法律科学研究中心研究员
出版日期：2016年2月9日
内容提要 对于由公众意见主导形成的强大舆论场，是否会对轰动案件中的司法自洽 性产生影响，以及这种影响是怎样实现的，其实很难仅凭感性认识得出具有说服力的结论。 通过模拟实验的方法，有助于明悉舆论、政治与司法三者之间的内在关系，把握从民意导向 到个案决策的动力机制。以尘埃落定的李昌奎案为研究范本，公众舆情与司法决策被分别 设定成自变量和因变量，且后者又被细化为实体和程序两个维度。经过对案情事实的模拟 还原，作为参与主体的法官重新做出了裁判。最终，民意舆论与程序裁决之间的变量关系 得以确认，但需经由政治权力的媒介作用，才能产生影响既判力的效果。司法改革的切入 点只有从此关系中挖掘，才能真正实现舆论、政治与司法三者之间的必要平衡。
关键词 舆论场 司法自洽 个案决策
Abstract: It is difficult to draw persuasive conclusions by mere perceptual knowledge that if strong public opinion will affect judicial self － consistency in some sensational cases，and how is this effect achieved． In order to probe into the internal relationship of public opinion， politics and judicature，and to grasp the dynamic mechanism from the orientation of public opinion to the judgments of individual cases，this paper takes the method of simulation experiment． To be specific，the Li Changkui case is taken as the study object，and public opinion and judicial decisions are set as independent variable and dependent variable respectively，with the latter further divided into two dimensions，namely the entity and the procedure． Judges，as main participants of trial，give new judgments after restoring the case facts under the condition of simulation experiment． Finally，the variable relations between public opinion and judicial judgment are nailed down，but the former will affect the latter only with the intermediary role of political power． The inter － relationship among public opinion， politics and judicial decisions can be necessarily balanced only when the breakthroughs of judicial reform is found from the above findings．